Sunday, October 28, 2012

AI and Ethiopia: an unexpected synergy | KurzweilAI



Getnet Aseffa
In February of this year, KurzweilAI.net’s Amara Angelica put me in touch with an enterprising young Ethiopian engineer named Getnet Aseffa, who was interested in advanced technologies and their implications, and especially in their potential application to help Ethiopia and other African nations.
After some email dialogue, Getnet arranged for me to give a talk via Skype to an audience at Addis Ababa Institute of Technology. The themes of the talk were the Singularity and AGI; it was very well received, with many excellent questions at the end, covering everything from near-term practical AI applications to the potential risks of superhuman AGI.
Inspired by the strong reception of my Skype talk, and based on an invitation from Getnet, I recently spent four days in Ethiopia — mostly in the capital, Addis Ababa — with a main mission of better understanding the science and technology scene there, and forming a picture of what sort of AI-related opportunities might be available.
I spent some time at the university (Addis Ababa Institute of Technology) and gave a seminar there, and also talked to a host of technologists, entrepreneurs and scientists. Of course, four days is barely enough time to form an initial impression — but I did form a fairly strong one. I came away convinced that there are great opportunities to use AI technology to help Ethiopia confront some of the various problems it faces, and also to collaborate with Ethiopians on pursuing advanced AI R&D, along with other kinds of software and technology development.
I have written an H+ Magazine article giving a more personal account of the visit and some of the interesting conversations I had. Here I will take a broader view, and synthesize some of my impressions and opinions on the potential near and medium term future of AI in Ethiopia.
Ethiopia’s rapid growth
Before connecting with Getnet last year, my main impressions of Ethiopia had to to with famine and the Ethiopia/Eritrea war. But of course these tragic events are history now, and Ethiopia is the third fastest growing country in the world, and the fastest growing African nation.
The majority of Ethiopians are still rural farmers, and poverty, unemployment and income inequality are all high. However, starvation is a thing of the past, and disease is being controlled by an increasingly sophisticated medical system. Education is now widespread, with 95% graduating primary school, 60-70% graduating high school, and the number of universities pushing 100.
There is a highly energetic and rapidly increasing population of businesspeople, entrepreneurs and technologists, explicitly striving to better their country and maintain its fantastic growth rate by starting and executing a huge variety of projects. There’s also a significant foreign presence, especially Indian, Chinese and Korean. The government has explicitly looked to Korea as a guide for rapid, carefully state-managed development.
AI in Ethiopia?

Getnet Aseffa explains Ray Kurzweil’s exponential growth of computing at a Singularity seminar in Ethiopia (credit: Getnet Aseffa)
At first glance, the idea of doing AI in a developing country like Ethiopia may seem a non sequitur. One might think that developing countries have a lot of other more basic problems to deal with, before they need to start thinking about advanced technologies like artificial intelligence.
But actually, this is an overly limited perspective. Many decision-makers in Ethiopia and other developing countries recognize the existence of opportunities to leapfrog past stages of development that currently developed countries have passed through, using new technologies to hop directly into the future.
The most notable example of this is the tendency of developing nations to bypass the widespread laying of communication cables in rural regions, relying on wireless instead. Similarly, even though currently developed countries didn’t have much to do with AI during their earlier stages of development, different opportunities may exist for developing countries today.
In fact, I believe there are great opportunities for AI to help developing countries such as Ethiopia, and for these countries to help advance AI. And not only do such opportunities exist, but there is real appetite in Ethiopia (and quite likely other developing nations as well) for exploring them. Getnet has been organizing advanced technology seminars in Addis Ababa every couple months, with 700+ attendees each time, coming to hear about topics like AI, the Singularity, nanotech and self-driving cars.
How AI might help Ethiopia
I found that Ethiopian academics, technologists and businesspeople were full of ideas regarding how AI technology might help Ethiopia. At the tail end of a seminar I gave at Addis Ababa Institute of Technology, I discussed a few possibilities — some of which were my own ideas, some of which came from Getnet or other Ethiopian scientists or technologists in conversation:
  • AI-based modeling, prediction & decision support for economic growth. This would require the creation of a comprehensive database of information regarding the Ethiopian economy — which would be a good thing in itself. Exploring this possibility in depth turned up various subsidiary problems, such as the fact that much of the needed data exists only in Amharic textual format, and no available solution for Amharic OCR exists.
  • Smart power grids. I’ve previously done work using the OpenCog AI system to predict power transformer failures. This sort of application is extremely interesting to Ethiopians, given their rapidly growing and sometimes rickety power grid
  • AI-controlled microdrones — these are already in use for surveillance purposes, but supplying them with better machine vision could allow them to be used more broadly, e.g., to survey crops and track the spread of agricultural disease. Similar technology could enable microdrones to be used to help with mining prospecting.
  • AI-powered bioinformatics, such as I’ve been doing with Biomind, could be used to help understand Africa-specific health problems, and help accelerate genetic engineering of crops
  • AI dialogue systems, accessible via cellphone, could be used to provide medical & other decision support
  • AI tutors, provided via smartphone, could enhance the education system. The reason why 30% or more primary school graduates don’t attend high school is mainly transportation. If there’s no high school in your village, it may be a very long commute to and fro to high school, which is especially problematic if your help is needed around the house and farm. Tele-education may be part of the solution.
  • Smartphone-based medical diagnostics. With a microscope attachment, a smartphone can analyze blood samples and message the pictures to servers where AIs or human doctors can analyze them. A host of other portable, automated diagnostic possibilities exist — this is related to the current Tricorder X-Prize.
My seminar at the university overall was 2.5 hours in length, covering a variety of topics including Singularity, AGI, AI-based bioinformatics, life extension and machine learning.
The academic, programming and engineering expertise exists in Ethiopia, right now, to carry out nearly all of these things. Furthermore, the government has sufficient funds and motivation to pursue these sorts of projects. A number of government officials attended my seminar, and some asked probing questions.
What seems to be lacking at the moment is any organization oriented toward carrying out these sorts of applications. Perhaps in time, Addis Ababa University will formalize an organization similar to MIT Media Lab, bringing together scientists and engineers with various backgrounds to creatively address Ethiopia’s issues and opportunities using AI and other advanced technologies.
How Ethiopia might help AI — and the software industry
Contemporary Addis Ababa gives one the feeling of immense energy and enthusiasm — much of which is untapped. In spite of the rapid growth, unemployment remains high, even among the college educated. I was amazed to find that fully competent computer programmers, with knowledge of languages like C++ and Java as well as the theory of algorithms and data structures and so forth, are generally paid around US$100/month.
Even experienced experts may earn only double that. The cost of living in Ethiopia is also quite low by international standards, with reasonable-quality apartments available for $90/month and others as inexpensive as $20/month (though one can also pay $2000/month or more for a large and luxurious accommodation). But from a business perspective, this seems to pose an interesting opportunity.
The Ethiopian infrastructure is still at an early stage of development, but for some industries, this doesn’t matter that much. Software is a good example. The average Internet bandwidth in Ethiopia is distressingly low, but for a relatively modest price one can get a decent connection (say, hundreds of U.S. dollars per month). And the bandwidth situation is rapidly improving. Computer hardware and repair are readily available.
There’s no fundamental reason that I can see why Ethiopia shouldn’t have a booming software outsourcing industry. The cost of outsourcing to traditional locations like India, China and Eastern Europe is rapidly increasing, causing outsources to look to other locations such as Vietnam. But the prices Ethiopia offers are hard to match.
I’m speaking about Ethiopia in this context because it’s the place I happen to have made contacts and gained knowledge — but it’s highly possible that some other African countries may offer similar opportunities. One thing that may make Ethiopia especially appropriate, however, is its relatively high-quality education system. Programming and algorithms are about the same anywhere. Where technical matters are concerned, the students and faculty I met at Addis Ababa University might just as well have been at any engineering school in the developed world.
Of all the advanced technologies pushing directly toward Singularity, AI distinguishes itself by requiring the least resources. Nanotech, robotics and biotech require expensive lab equipment, which is difficult to maintain appropriately in a location like Ethiopia, where spare parts are far away. But AI just requires computers and smart programmers, and an Internet connection.
Ethiopia has all of those, and at a remarkably low price. So it seems quite possible that Ethiopia, and other developing countries, could end up serving as the engines of AI advancement — maybe even the location of the breakthrough from narrow AI to Artificial General Intelligence.
Actually, I’m not sure the breakthrough to AGI will occur in any one place — if it’s the OpenCog project I co-founded that makes the breakthrough, then it will occur in a globally distributed manner, since OpenCog developers are working on multiple continents round the clock.
But there’s no reason a major contribution to such an effort can’t be made by teams in developing countries, taking advantage of the unique opportunities offered by their developmental stage. This is a possibility I’ll be actively exploring via ongoing conversations with my Ethiopian colleagues.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

discover your superpowers :: karen walrond

some of my favourite shots from ethiopia

As promised, here are some more of my favourite shots I took in Ethiopia -- ones that didn't fit easily in the stories I shared last week, but that I love anyway.  ​ There's really no rhyme or reason to them, or how they're presented here, but hopefully they'll give you a flavour of what the week felt like as a whole.
The shot above was taken on Sunday, October 6, as worshippers gathered at a large Ethiopian Orthodox church.  Often the churches are so crowded, people stand outside in the churchyard during services.​
Our lead driver, Kiru.  When he introduced himself, I asked for clarification,
Our lead driver, Kiru.  When he introduced himself, I asked for clarification, "I'm sorry, is your name Kiru?"  "Yes," he confirmed. And then he grinned, "Kind of like 'hero'!"  And he flexed his biceps.​
We all laughed, but there were several times over the week that he proved himself our hero (not the least of which was smoothing things over for me with a testy cop).  And at the end of the trip, he gifted me with three CDs of Ethiopian music that he thought I would enjoy.  Great, great guy.​
Gabrielle Blair  , entering the arrivals hall at the Addis Ababa international Airport.  I love her expression of excitement on her face -- it's the same expression I saw on each blogger as they arrived (and the one I felt on my own face when I did the same).
​Gabrielle Blair, entering the arrivals hall at the Addis Ababa international Airport.  I love her expression of excitement on her face -- it's the same expression I saw on each blogger as they arrived (and the one I felt on my own face when I did the same).
Boys juggle together at the   Mary Joy Aid Through Development  .  This particular segment of their performance was preceded by a mime, where the boy on the right
​Boys juggle together at the Mary Joy Aid Through Development.  This particular segment of their performance was preceded by a mime, where the boy on the right "taught" the boy on the left to juggle.

Apparently he's a good learner.
This little girl at Mary Joy tried to teach me to dance -- and when I tried to do the shoulder-popping moves that she was doing, I think she felt sorry for me, because she didn't leave my side the rest of the visit.

I seriously fell in love with her.
​This little girl at Mary Joy tried to teach me to dance -- and when I tried to do the shoulder-popping moves that she was doing, I think she felt sorry for me, because she didn't leave my side the rest of the visit.

I seriously fell in love with her.
Yes, this child is eating fire -- and  well , by the way.  He was fantastic.

 

 It was only after I left Mary Joy and was processing this photo did it dawn on me that perhaps this wasn't the  safest  activity to teach a young boy.
​Yes, this child is eating fire -- and well, by the way.  He was fantastic.
It was only after I left Mary Joy and was processing this photo did it dawn on me that perhaps this wasn't the safest activity to teach a young boy.
Jennifer Howze   practices her Ethiopian dance moves.  She looks so graceful here, doesn't she?
Jennifer Howze practices her Ethiopian dance moves.  She looks so graceful here, doesn't she?
At the end of our first day, we shared a traditional Ethiopian meal.  Ethiopian food is meaty, spicy, shared communally, and there aren't any utensils; you eat with your hands.

There's something very intimate about sharing a meal this way, i think.  It feels like a wonderful way to seal new friendships.
At the end of our first day, we shared a traditional Ethiopian meal.  Ethiopian food is meaty, spicy, shared communally, and there aren't any utensils; you eat with your hands.

There's something very intimate about sharing a meal this way, i think.  It feels like a wonderful way to seal new friendships.​
This is Saba, one of the women who works at   FashionABLE  .  Here's she's preparing coffee beans for roasting, for a coffee ceremony.

 
Saba also has  one of the FashionABLE scarves named after her , and she shared her story of how she ended up on the streets, but more importantly,  how she's now making a sustainable living off t  he streets  -- and taking care of her mother, in the process.  A radiant woman.
This is Saba, one of the women who works at FashionABLE.  Here's she's preparing coffee beans for roasting, for a coffee ceremony.​

Saba also has one of the FashionABLE scarves named after her, and she shared her story of how she ended up on the streets, but more importantly, how she's now making a sustainable living off the streets -- and taking care of her mother, in the process.  A radiant woman.
Saba roasting the beans.   I've actually shared this image with you before , but I love it, so I'm sharing it again.  Apologies.
Saba roasting the beans.  I've actually shared this image with you before, but I love it, so I'm sharing it again.  Apologies.​
Saba popping popcorn.  We were surprised that often unsalted popcorn was served with the coffee.  But honestly, it works!
Saba popping popcorn.  We were surprised that often unsalted popcorn was served with the coffee.  But honestly, it works!​
Asha Dornfest   and   Liz Gumbinner   share Saba's fresh coffee.  I probably don't have to tell you that it was good to the last drop.
Asha Dornfest and Liz Gumbinner share Saba's fresh coffee.  I probably don't have to tell you that it was good to the last drop.​
Liz  , recognizing a book at the Mojo Secondary School library.  The kids are taught in both English and Amharic.
Liz, recognizing a book at the Mojo Secondary School library.  The kids are taught in both English and Amharic.​
A midwife at a rural clinic outside of Addis Ababa explains the conditions she is sometimes faced with in her job.

Although I was permitted to take photographs at this clinic, I chose not to -- I couldn't imagine being at a hospital feeling ill, and a photographer coming up with a camera in my face asking to take my picture.  So for the most part, I put the camera away.  But I did like the angle that this was shot, and since there were no patients in the frame,  I thought I'd share it.
A midwife at a rural clinic outside of Addis Abab​a explains the conditions she is sometimes faced with in her job.

Although I was permitted to take photographs at this clinic, I chose not to -- I couldn't imagine being at a hospital feeling ill, and a photographer coming up with a camera in my face asking to take my picture.  So for the most part, I put the camera away.  But I did like the angle that this was shot, and since there were no patients in the frame,  I thought I'd share it.
Cathleen Falsani   and   Kelly Wickham   taking in the gorgeous Ethiopia countryside, as we waited for the beekeepers to return with their beehives.

 

 Kelly's gesture represents what I think we were all feeling as we looked out at the scenery before us.
Cathleen Falsani and Kelly Wickham taking in the gorgeous Ethiopia countryside, as we waited for the beekeepers to return with their beehives.​
Kelly's gesture represents what I think we were all feeling as we looked out at the scenery before us.​
Christine Koh   and   Liz   laughing and generally enjoying life (in their  FashionABLE scarves ,  natch !).

 

 (Speaking of which!  Last night, the ONEMoms heard from the founder of FashionABLE, Barrett Ward, who said that as a result of all the scarves that were bought from people who read the ONEMoms posts this past month, FashionABLE is able to hire three more women -- that's three more women off the street, who no longer have to turn to a life of prostitution to feed themselves and their children!   You  did that!  You should be seriously, seriously proud.

 

  These scarves are magic , I tell you.)
Christine Koh and Liz laughing and generally enjoying life (in their FashionABLE scarvesnatch!).
(Speaking of which!  Last night, the ONEMoms heard from the founder of FashionABLE, Barrett Ward, who said that as a result of all the scarves that were bought from people who read the ONEMoms posts this past month, FashionABLE is able to hire three more women -- that's three more women off the street, who no longer have to turn to a life of prostitution to feed themselves and their children!  You did that!  You should be seriously, seriously proud.
These scarves are magic, I tell you.)​
Another child I fell in love with.  As I think about it, it was very easy to fall in love in Ethiopia.
Another child I fell in love with.  As I think about it, it was very easy to fall in love in Ethiopia.​
The   ONEMoms   (not shown,   Jennifer  ).  A really lovely, lovely group of great women.
The ONEMoms (not shown, Jennifer).  A really lovely, lovely group of great women.​
And on that note, this concludes the Ethiopian portion of Chookooloonks!  Again, thanks so much for joining me on this journey, friends.  It was such a great trip, and I hope you enjoyed the photographs as much as I enjoyed taking them.​
Song:​  Africaye by Teddy Afro.  And yes, this is a song off of one of the CDs Kiru gave me.  Love.
__________________​
I've recently returned from a trip to Ethiopia, at the kind invitation and expense of The ONE Campaign, a nonpartisan, advocacy organization dedicated to the fight against extreme poverty and preventable disease, particularly in Africa.  ONE works to convince governments to invest in smart programs that help eliminate poverty and preventable disease in a sustainable way.  I was supporting a group of  parenting bloggers by capturing images that tell the story of how the organizations for which ONE advocates are effecting real change in Ethiopia.  
If you're moved by anything you read or see here, on the ONE blog or any of the ONEMoms' blogs and you'd like to help, please consider adding your voice, and join ONE by simply filling out the surprisingly short form in my sidebar on the right.  Your information will remain confidential, I promise.  And if you're already a member, and would still like to help, I'd love if you'd spread the word by sharing this post with your friends and followers.
That's all there is to it.  Because ONE never asks for your money, just your voice.